Beyond AI: five mega-trends that will reshape business in the next decade

AI now dominates every headline, every investor pitch, and every corporate strategy memo. That focus is of course understandable, given the capabilities emerging from the sector. Yet, fixating entirely on AI creates a blind spot for other substantial forces reshaping the global business environment. As we move through 2025 and into the decade ahead, a broader set of societal, geopolitical, and technological mega-trends is quietly reshaping how industries operate. Some will accelerate changes that have been building for years; others will introduce entirely new constraints and possibilities. 

Industry players that track these shifts early will find openings their competitors miss. Meanwhile, those that don’t may find themselves reacting to disruptions they honestly should have seen coming. A smart strategy requires widening the aperture; the companies likely to thrive aren’t just the ones automating workflows, but are actively anticipating these broader systemic waves. While risks are certainly part of the equation – they always are – so are the openings for distinct competitive advantages. What follows is an overview of five crucial mega-trends, excluding AI, that every industry should have on its radar. Each carries profound implications for how businesses will operate, adapt, and thrive in the years ahead. Are you ready?

1. The great demographic divergence

Ageing populations, shrinking labour pools, and booming youth cohorts are reshaping global talent supply, with profound implications for business strategy.

One of the most significant trends reshaping the business landscape is an ageing and, in many economies, shrinking working-age population. Employment rates at older ages have climbed steadily in recent decades (as has home ownership, but that’s another story) as people stay in the labour market for longer and employers increasingly rely on their experience. Across OECD countries, for example, the employment rate of 45–64 year-olds rose by an average of 9.3 percentage points between 2000 and 2024, underscoring how quickly the profile of the workforce is changing. 

Several factors sit behind this rise in employment among older workers. Policy reforms in pensions and retirement ages have nudged people to remain in work, while structural shifts such as better health, higher educational attainment, and more flexible work arrangements have made that choice more feasible. Advancements in healthcare and living standards mean more people reach later life in good health and are physically able to stay active in their jobs or to transition into less demanding ones. Higher levels of education among older cohorts support that trend, since better-educated workers tend to hold roles that rely on knowledge and transferable skills, which remain valuable for longer. Taken together, longer lives, stronger human capital, and more adaptable workplaces enable many older workers to keep contributing well beyond the traditional retirement age.

An ageing society

From a societal perspective, increased longevity is now more often paired with the ability to remain economically and socially engaged, which can turn ageing populations into a source of strength. At the same time, the combination of longer lives, falling birth rates, and a declining share of people in prime working ages is pushing dependency ratios higher in many high-income economies, placing greater strain on a smaller pool of working-age individuals. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates that the shrinking share of working-age people could reduce annual per capita GDP growth by almost 0.4 percentage points between 2024 and 2050. For businesses, that translates into a tighter labour market, persistent skill shortages, and growing competition for talent.

With fewer new workers entering the labour pool, companies in high-income economies are rethinking how they source and develop skills. Many employers are putting greater emphasis on internal mobility and reskilling: according to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, 60% of companies in high-income economies say that transitioning current employees into growing roles is becoming a central workforce strategy. Deeper automation also features in many scenarios, as organisations look for ways to sustain productivity when headcount growth is constrained. Ageing societies are therefore likely to see a twin focus on upskilling people who are already in the organisation and investing in technologies that can shoulder routine tasks or augment human capabilities.

The power of youth

Lower-income economies, on the other hand, are facing the opposite challenge. Younger populations – propelled by surging birthrates in countries like Nigeria and Pakistan – are swelling the ranks of the labour force, as large cohorts move through education and into the workplace. Over the next decade, the World Bank expects around 1.2 billion young people in emerging and developing economies to reach working age, yet current projections suggest that only about 420 million additional jobs will be created in that period, leaving close to 800 million young people facing uncertain employment prospects. A growing working-age population can support rapid growth if enough productive jobs appear; when that does not happen, the result can be prolonged underemployment, frustration, and rising pressure on social systems. A vivid depiction of the societal discord that emerges from heavy automation.

These diverging paths feed directly into the global distribution of labour. At the moment, the world’s working-age population is roughly balanced between lower-income (49%) and higher-income (51%) economies, but WEF projections indicate that by 2050, lower-income countries will account for about 59% of the global working-age population. Geographies with a demographic dividend, particularly India and many Sub-Saharan African nations, are expected to supply nearly two-thirds of new entrants to the global workforce in the coming decades. How businesses respond to this rebalancing will determine where talent flows, where new markets emerge, and where competitive advantages take root.

2. A fracturing world

Rising trade barriers, shifting alliances, and supply chain realignments are forcing businesses to rethink where and how they operate in an increasingly fractured world.

Geoeconomic tensions are increasingly reshaping how goods move around the world, as trade disputes, sanctions, and export controls disrupt established corridors and inject uncertainty into supply chains. Lower-income economies are particularly vulnerable in this regard, because essentials such as food and energy take up a much larger share of household spending there, so any price spike driven by trade frictions can quickly erode living standards and social stability. Governments worldwide are responding to this trend by rolling out new trade and investment restrictions, expanding subsidy programmes, and reworking industrial policies to favour domestic producers or strategic partners.

The World Trade Organization notes that trade restrictions have roughly doubled between 2020 and 2024, with import restrictions now covering close to 10% of global imports. For example, the United States has introduced punishing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and worst of all, China – some products like EVs face duties of above 100% – under its ‘America First’ banner. Similarly, the EU and several other economies are rolling out their own protectionist tools and subsidy frameworks, making market access more complicated for multinational firms. BCG estimates that governments now take around 3,000 economic actions of this kind each year, roughly six times the volume seen a decade ago.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting southward. Economic power and influence are gradually moving from traditional Western centres toward emerging economies across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The expansion of BRICS to include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt highlights this shift. With the addition of these three major Arab economies, the grouping now covers around 45% of the world’s population and 28% of global GDP, giving it a more prominent role in shaping trade alignments, energy policy, and financial cooperation.

Coming back home

In response to mounting geoeconomic tensions, nearshoring and reshoring are gaining traction as companies look to shorten lead times, reduce exposure to tariff shocks, and build resilience into their operations. US firms are increasingly sourcing components and finished goods from Mexico, where labour costs are typically 20% to 30% lower than in China, and proximity reduces transport risk. European firms are taking a similar path, expanding procurement across the Mediterranean. Countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco now account for more than 8% of European sourcing, and nearshoring makes up about 15% of European brands’ and retailers’ purchases as of Q1 2024.

Bain & Company’s 2024 survey of executives found that 81% plan to bring supply chain operations closer to key end markets, with a sizeable share already investing. About 18% of respondents reported current investment in onshoring or nearshoring, while 46% are pursuing “split-shoring” models that blend offshore, nearshore, and onshore production. BCG projections suggest that if these trends continue, regional supply chains could account for roughly half of global trade by 2030, up from about 30% in 2020. 

Nearshoring and reshoring come with their own challenges, however, with labour shortages standing at the top of the list. A 2024 Deloitte study estimates that the US manufacturing sector faces a current labour gap of around 1.9 million workers, which could widen to 3.8 million over the next decade if hiring and training patterns remain unchanged. For companies contemplating nearshoring or reshoring, the question is therefore not only where to put the next factory, but also how to secure, train, and retain the people needed to run it in a more fragmented global economy.

3. Nature’s invoice

Extreme weather costs are soaring, and regulatory pressures are mounting, making climate resilience a business imperative for leaders.

Climate change is set to remain one of the most consequential forces shaping business strategy over the next decade, as weather-related damage continues to intensify, disrupting communities and operations across continents. Scientists confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year ever recorded and the first time global average temperatures surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels across a full calendar year. The financial toll of such developments is mounting. Gartner estimates that the number of extreme weather events in the United States causing more than US$1bn in losses each year has skyrocketed more than threefold, from an annual average of 7.2 events between 1980 and 2019 to an average of 23 events between 2020 and 2024.

The price of inaction

Europe has experienced a similar pattern, with weather- and climate-related events generating an estimated €822bn (US$960bn) in economic losses across the EU between 1980 and 2024. Average annual losses climbed from €8.6bn in the 1980s to nearly €45bn between 2020 and 2024 – far outpacing inflation and reflecting the escalating frequency and severity of floods, droughts, storms, and heatwaves. Projections suggest the financial burden will continue to rise in the decades ahead, even under strong global mitigation efforts. By the 2050s, physical climate risks are expected to cause annual losses of roughly US$1.2tr for major global companies, according to S&P Global Sustainable data. Extreme heat and water stress are expected to drive the majority of that impact.

In this environment, leaders face the challenge of preparing for both immediate physical threats and longer-term transitional risks. The former range from facility damage during hurricanes to supply bottlenecks caused by flooding or power outages, as well as safety risks for employees during wildfires or extreme heat events. The transitional risks, on the other hand, build more gradually and may include reassessment of asset values in vulnerable locations, shifting consumer preferences in favour of climate-resilient products, and tightening regulatory requirements. Despite the clear danger, corporate readiness remains uneven. Across a large sample of companies assessed in the 2024 S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment (CSA), only 35% disclosed they have resilience plans in place.

Green is the new black

Even as global negotiations around climate policy grow more complex, organisations continue to prioritise the green transition. Nearly half of employers surveyed in the WEF’s Future of Jobs Survey 2025 view expanded efforts to cut emissions as a major driver of organisational transformation, and 41% expect investments in climate adaptation to reshape their operations. This isn’t just empty talk; indeed, the 2025 edition of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Investment report indicates that investment in clean technologies, from renewables and nuclear to storage, low-emission fuels, grid upgrades, electrification, and efficiency, is on track to reach a record US$2.2tr this year. Renewables alone are forecast to generate more than one-third of global electricity in 2025, surpassing coal for the first time.

Meeting climate goals, however, requires a workforce equipped with wholly new technical and operational capabilities. Many roles, especially in production and industrial settings, will face transition costs as tasks shift toward cleaner processes and technologies. The labour market is struggling to keep up with the pace of change. While the global share of workers gaining green skills rose by 12% between 2022 and 2023, job postings requiring at least one green skill increased by nearly 22% over the same period, according to LinkedIn’s Global Green Skills Report 2023. This means that without stronger investment in green skilling, from vocational programs and apprenticeships to large-scale upskilling within companies, organisations risk missing out on the opportunities created by the transition, and workers risk being left behind.

4. Mind the skills gap

As technology reshapes job requirements faster than workers can adapt, closing the skills gap has become one of the defining challenges for employers worldwide.

Green skills are far from the only capabilities in short supply. Employers across sectors are reporting growing shortages in an expanding range of skills, and this gap is increasingly being seen as a major drag on organisational transformation. As many as 63% of respondents in WEF’s Future of Jobs Survey cited skill gaps as the primary barrier to change between 2025 and 2030. Many expect a significant reset in the capabilities their teams will need, with 39% of workers’ core skills projected to shift by 2030. Technological skills stand out as the fastest-rising group in employer forecasts. AI and big data lead the list, followed by networks, cybersecurity, and general technological literacy. Alongside these technical competencies, employers also highlight creative thinking and key socio-emotional attitudes – those being; resilience, flexibility, agility, curiosity, and a commitment to lifelong learning – as essential for navigating the next wave of workplace disruption.

The experience dilemma

Finding experienced talent has become an increasingly difficult task. Organisations are hiring in tight labour markets while work itself grows more complex, and many new recruits arrive without the experience required for evolving roles. Deloitte’s 2025 Global Human Capital Trends survey shows that 66% of managers and executives believe their most recent hires were not fully prepared, with experience gaps cited most often. That mismatch exposes a long-standing dilemma: workers cannot secure roles without experience, yet cannot gain that experience without a foothold job. The challenge is being compounded by rapid technological shifts. As AI systems take on certain tasks and job content becomes more diverse and knowledge-intensive, workers need broader and deeper experience portfolios, but traditional pathways for building those capabilities are shrinking.

In response to the growing skills gaps, employers are doubling down on reskilling and upskilling their existing employees. Future of Jobs Survey respondents indicate that 50% of their workforce has already completed training as part of internal learning and development initiatives. Even so, the scale of the need is much larger. Surveyed employers expect that 59% of workers will require significant training by 2030 to stay aligned with business priorities. That level of change calls for structured development pathways, interdisciplinary learning, and more creative approaches to skill-building.

Talent without borders

The rise of remote work offers another avenue for addressing the skills gap. WEF forecasts indicate that by 2030, the number of roles that can be performed remotely from nearly anywhere will rise by roughly 25% to around 92 million. Digital remote working creates advantages across the board. Countries with large, youthful, or highly skilled populations stand to benefit from new income streams and knowledge exchange as global remote work expands (remember those opportunity shortages some skilled workers face domestically). The benefits of remote work are well-established; more autonomy and broader career options. Employers gain agility and resilience by sourcing specialised talent across borders. And economies can tap into new avenues for growth, especially in regions where local labour markets have struggled to absorb rising numbers of jobseekers. The skills crisis remains challenging, but the rise of distributed work provides a pathway to close some of the most persistent gaps, provided organisations pair remote hiring with sustained investment in learning and development.

5. A house divided

Deepening political divides and rising consumer activism are reshaping expectations of brands, making trust, authenticity, and neutrality harder to maintain.

Political and social divisions are deepening across many regions, mirroring the fragmentation we’re also seeing at the geopolitical level. Democratic institutions face mounting strain as trust erodes in governments, media outlets, and even corporate leaders. Populist movements are gathering momentum in several major economies, fuelled by frustration with inequality, living costs, rapid cultural changes, and perceptions of institutional failure. Social media only serves to accelerate these trends. Algorithm-driven feeds segment people into tightly defined information ecosystems, amplifying tribal identities and weakening shared reference points. Opinion-driven podcasts are replacing traditional news sources for many audiences, while the same digital channels offer space for foreign influence operations and for business leaders with media platforms to shape public narratives.

The politics of business

For businesses, rising polarisation creates layers of strategic uncertainty. Consumer behaviour becomes harder to predict, policy swings become more abrupt, and workforce dynamics grow more sensitive as employees carry their own identities and media consumption habits into the workplace. Companies operating in heavily regulated sectors face additional pressure, since shifts in the national mood can directly influence their licensing, compliance obligations, and long-term investment planning. Strategic decisions that once seemed purely commercial now sit at the intersection of culture, identity, and public opinion.

Public visibility intensifies the challenge. As media exposure expands and stakeholders scrutinise corporate behaviour more closely, companies feel compelled to take positions on issues once considered outside their remit. Polarisation strengthens political and social identities, encouraging consumers to support brands aligned with their values and withdraw support from those they view as opposing them. That dynamic can trigger simultaneous boycotts and buycotts, with the same brand attracting fervent supporters and determined detractors at the same moment, depending on the stance it adopts. Standing on the sidelines, on the other hand, likely earns you the disdain of both sides.

Trust as a commodity

Evidence from recent surveys shows how widespread this expectation has become. The 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer reports that 78% of consumers globally believe brands are now engaging in political activity, whether intentionally or implicitly by association. A strong majority  (71%) say companies should respond when pressured to take a stand, rather than remaining silent. 60% acknowledge that they have chosen, switched, or boycotted brands based on those stances. Shifts in sentiment on that scale carry substantial financial implications. A 2024 report by the Allianz Group estimates that a mere 10% decline in consumer confidence could reduce consumption by US$105bn over the next four years, underscoring how sensitive markets have become to shifts in public trust and political mood.

Corporate engagement in social causes has brought attention and resources to important issues, yet it also carries risks. Critics argue that some organisations use social positions as commercial branding tools without applying the same principles consistently across markets. Multinational companies, in particular, face scrutiny for tailoring their corporate responsibility policies to fit the dominant political climate in each country, raising questions about authenticity and deepening scepticism among consumers. In an environment where polarisation already colours public perception, such inconsistencies can amplify backlash, erode trust, and entangle businesses in political debates they never intended to enter.