{"id":57910,"date":"2017-11-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-11-22T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/richardvanhooijdonk.com\/blog\/4-effects-of-self-driving-systems-the-most-disruptive-tech-in-history\/"},"modified":"2021-07-22T14:51:03","modified_gmt":"2021-07-22T12:51:03","slug":"4-effects-of-self-driving-systems-the-most-disruptive-tech-in-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/en\/4-effects-of-self-driving-systems-the-most-disruptive-tech-in-history\/","title":{"rendered":"4 effects of self-driving systems &#8211; the most disruptive tech in history"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul class=\"bold-list\">\n<li>Tax and traffic revenue: a ripple effect<\/li>\n<li>Drivers and deliveries: job losses are inevitable<\/li>\n<li>Hotels and airlines<\/li>\n<li>Safety: can we save nearly 40,000 lives?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/en\/keynote\/the-future-of-logistics-and-transport\/\">Driverless cars are coming<\/a> &#8211; faster than you might think. Waymo, Alphabet\u2019s self-driving division, logged more than 1.6 million autonomous kilometres on California\u2019s roads between 2015 and 2016. Just a few years ago, you could be forgiven for writing off autonomous vehicles as a tech fad or an indulgence of the hyper rich. But now, you need to recon with the reality of driverless cars.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"4 effects of self-driving systems \u2013 the most disruptive tech in history\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/VnKLVeMpvvk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>And as Thomas Frey, a noted futurist, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.futuristspeaker.com\/business-trends\/driverless-tech-8-scenarios-that-show-it-to-be-the-most-disruptive-technology-in-all-history\/\">insists<\/a>, \u201cDriverless vehicles will be the most disruptive technology in all history. There may be more disruptive technologies on the horizon, but it is hard to imagine anything that will add more changes to our daily lives faster than this one.\u201d His argument is that this tech will affect more people faster than any previous development in human history. We\u2019re inclined to agree, and we\u2019d like to look at some of the changes we can expect.<\/p>\n\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"section\" data-elementor-id=\"70853\" class=\"elementor elementor-70853 elementor-70829\" data-elementor-post-type=\"elementor_library\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-43b2efb elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"43b2efb\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" 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class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-61c0828\" data-id=\"61c0828\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-475a287 elementor-section-full_width elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"475a287\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" 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class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-81ee5fa\" data-id=\"81ee5fa\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-efaa9f9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"efaa9f9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Free trendservice<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-478f7f9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"478f7f9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tReceive the latest insights, research material, e-books, white papers and articles from our research team every month, for free!\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-295c76f\" data-id=\"295c76f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3a675f2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"3a675f2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<!-- SharpSpring Form for Newsletter  -->\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n    var ss_form = {'account': 'MzawMLEwtzQwAgA', 'formID': 'SzVPSzMyMrfUNTM0TNM1sTRK0k0yM0nSTUk0TUwxSU41TEw1BAA'};\n    ss_form.width = '100%';\n    ss_form.domain = 'app-3QNPVMFZ4W.marketingautomation.services';\n    \/\/ ss_form.hidden = {'field_id': 'value'}; \/\/ Modify this for sending hidden variables, or overriding values\n    \/\/ ss_form.target_id = 'target'; \/\/ Optional parameter: forms will be placed inside the element with the specified id\n    \/\/ ss_form.polling = true; \/\/ Optional parameter: set to true ONLY if your page loads dynamically and the id needs to be polled continually.\n<\/script>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/koi-3QNPVMFZ4W.marketingautomation.services\/client\/form.js?ver=2.0.1\"><\/script>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n<h2>Tax and traffic revenue: a ripple effect<\/h2>\n<p>Frey\u2019s vision of the effects of the driverless revolution is quite clear. But for many local governments, our poor driving is a source of incredible revenue. Frey notes that as much as 30 per cent of the total revenue of local budgets can come from traffic fines and related costs. In fact, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.futuristspeaker.com\/business-trends\/driverless-tech-8-scenarios-that-show-it-to-be-the-most-disruptive-technology-in-all-history\/\">according to him<\/a>, \u201cIn 2015, New York City collected a record $1.9 billion in fees and fines for motor vehicle violations.\u201d And Joel Barbier, the director of Cisco\u2019s Digitization Office, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/05\/03\/self-driving-cars-will-disrupt-10-industries-commentary.html\">writes<\/a> for CNBC that \u201cWashington, D.C. issued an average of 773 tickets per day [in 2014] from cameras used to identify speeding cars \u2014 adding up to roughly $37.5 million worth of fines.\u201d Autonomous vehicles will almost certainly create budget shortfalls, demand re-allocation of police resources, and reduce the jobs available at Departments of Motor Vehicles, police departments, and other related occupations. And it\u2019s worth considering what these lower revenues will mean for basic city services, too.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32916\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32916\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-32916 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/05\/self-driving-1024x683-1.jpg\" alt=\"A woman approaches the self-driving Cody vehicle on the street\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32916\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Autonomous vehicles will almost certainly create budget shortfalls, demand re-allocation of police resources, and reduce the jobs available at Departments of Motor Vehicles, police departments, and other related occupations.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Drivers and deliveries: job losses are inevitable<\/h2>\n<p>In the US, roughly 2 per cent of the total workforce &#8211; about 3.1 million people &#8211; are employed driving commercial trucks. As driverless freight takes each step closer to adoption, Anita Balakrishnan, a finance reporter for CNBC, sees little hope for these hard-working folks. \u201cWhen autonomous vehicle saturation peaks\u201d, she <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/05\/22\/goldman-sachs-analysis-of-autonomous-vehicle-job-loss.html\">writes<\/a>, \u201cUS drivers could see job losses at a rate of 25,000 a month, or 300,000 a year.\u201d Those are decimating numbers, and it\u2019s hard not to see these professional drivers as casualties of automation. And there\u2019ll be huge cost-savings for the shipping companies as they eliminate salaries and benefits. Barbier <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/05\/03\/self-driving-cars-will-disrupt-10-industries-commentary.html\">reports<\/a> that McKinsey estimates put the numbers \u201cbetween $100 to $500 billion per year by 2025 from driverless vehicles in the US trucking industry\u201d. That may be good news for the economy as a whole, but leaves little hope for those struggling to find new jobs.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Uber&#039;s Self-Driving Truck Makes Its First Delivery | WIRED\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sIlCR4eG8_o?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>Hotels and airlines<\/h2>\n<p>The hospitality industry has already taken a hit from the sharing economy\u2019s competition through sites like Airbnb. As experts like Jeff Weinstein, the editor of Hotels, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/business\/archive\/2017\/09\/hotels-magazine-industry-airbnb\/540525\/\">explains<\/a>, high-end hotels are doing just fine, and in emerging middle-class markets, consumers are strengthening the hospitality industry as well. But the future may not be entirely rosy. Sven Schuwirth, the vice president of brand strategy and digital business at Audi, says that the car manufacturer expects that, in the coming era of autonomous cars, business people \u201cwill sleep and work in their cars en route instead of checking into city-centre hotels\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>This only makes sense. Designers realise that the incredible safety of driverless cars means that they can pay a lot more attention to comfort than safety features. And because they need to reimagine the car as something other than a driver\u2019s cockpit, they can become more like a mobile living room, office, or bedroom. If you\u2019re already comfortable, why stop at a hotel?<br \/>\nAirtravel and the airports that make it possible are also in for a rude awakening. Frey reminds his readers that your regional hub probably takes in a large portion of its revenue just from parking. In fact, he <a href=\"http:\/\/www.futuristspeaker.com\/business-trends\/driverless-tech-8-scenarios-that-show-it-to-be-the-most-disruptive-technology-in-all-history\/\">reports<\/a>, \u201cIn 2013, 41 per cent of airport revenue came from parking and ground transportation\u201d. That\u2019s set to disappear. But even regional flights may be in danger when you can summon a driverless car, relax in comfort on the road, and arrive fresh and ready.<\/p>\n<h2>Safety; can we save nearly 40,000 lives?<\/h2>\n<p>Not every effect of the self-driving revolution is a bad thing, however. As we\u2019ve mentioned, Waymo\u2019s been doing more driving than you or I can do in a lifetime. To date, they\u2019ve put in 74 years worth of driving for you and me, given that the average American logs about 21,700 kilometres a year. And as Jacquelyn Miller, a spokeswoman for Waymo\u2019s parent company, Google, announced after an incident in which a human driver struck their test vehicle, its cars have had \u201c13 minor fender-benders in more than 1.8 million miles of autonomous and manual driving \u2014 and still, not once was the self-driving car the cause of the accident\u201d. Human beings just can\u2019t maintain a safety record like that &#8211; full stop.<\/p>\n<p>In 2016, the most recent year for which we could find data, 37,461 people died as a result of traffic accidents in the US. And while that\u2019s a dramatic improvement from the 1970s when nearly double that number lost their lives, it\u2019s simply unacceptable for even a single person to be killed by bad driving. People are still worried about ceding control to a machine, but the simple fact of the matter is that they don\u2019t drink and drive, get angry, text, spill coffee on themselves, speed, or any of the hundreds of things we\u2019ve all done that risk a crash. Even if they\u2019re only twice as safe as human drivers, that\u2019s nearly 20,000 lives saved a year in the US alone!<\/p>\n<p>Advances in self-driving technology are fast and furious, and it\u2019s no longer possible to discount this disruptive change. Instead, we should begin thinking and talking about what&#8217;s to come, looking for answers to some difficult questions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tax and traffic revenue: a ripple effect Drivers and deliveries: job losses are inevitable Hotels and airlines Safety: can we save nearly 40,000 lives? Driverless cars are coming &#8211; faster than you might think. Waymo, Alphabet\u2019s self-driving division, logged more than 1.6 million autonomous kilometres on California\u2019s roads between 2015 and 2016. Just a few [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45370,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2886],"tags":[4218],"article-type":[],"trends":[5488],"class_list":["post-57910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-transportation","tag-future","trends-autonomous-vehicles-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>4 effects of self-driving systems - the most disruptive tech in history - Richard van Hooijdonk Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The disruptive effects of the driverless revolution are only now being appreciated. 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