{"id":57949,"date":"2018-03-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-03-21T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/richardvanhooijdonk.com\/blog\/what-does-the-uber-accident-mean-for-the-adoption-of-autonomous-vehicles\/"},"modified":"2021-07-22T10:49:57","modified_gmt":"2021-07-22T08:49:57","slug":"what-does-the-uber-accident-mean-for-the-adoption-of-autonomous-vehicles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/en\/what-does-the-uber-accident-mean-for-the-adoption-of-autonomous-vehicles\/","title":{"rendered":"What does the Uber accident mean for the adoption of autonomous vehicles?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul class=\"bold-list\">\n<li>We\u2019re right to have concerns about self-driving car safety<\/li>\n<li>The Uber accident offers more reasons for worry &#8211; or does it?<\/li>\n<li>Rethinking the basics &#8211; better safe than sorry<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/en\/cars-with-superpowers-soon-autonomous-vehicles-may-see-through-walls-and-around-corners\/\">Self-driving systems<\/a> promise a future free from traffic, congestion, and accidents. And it\u2019s clear that they\u2019re one of the most disruptive technologies in play now. We\u2019ve written about stunning advances in the systems that make automated driving possible, and we\u2019re betting on a bright future. But it\u2019s also fair to say that this young tech has miles to go before it\u2019s really road-ready. Complicating matters, too, is the question of whether society and our infrastructure are primed enough to embrace intelligent supercars.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"What does the Uber accident mean for the adoption of autonomous vehicles?\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ULbOHYiqeG8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>In fact, most consumers are leery of automated driving. They\u2019re just not ready to trust the tech. If we choose to use self-driving vehicles, it means that our safety relies solely on the car\u2019s ability to take us to our destination in one piece. We wouldn\u2019t be steering the wheel \u2013 the smart car would be in charge. And that makes a lot of people uneasy.<\/p>\n<p>We get that, but it\u2019s worth keeping in mind that, in the US alone, more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/no-driverless-cars-arent-far-safer-than-human-drivers\/2018\/03\/20\/5dc77f42-2ba9-11e8-8ad6-fbc50284fce8_story.html?utm_term=.1f5ced0d141b\">37,000<\/a> people lost their lives in road accidents in 2016. The vast majority of these accidents were the result of human error. Experts who\u2019ve looked carefully at the future of self-driving systems think this is something that we\u2019ll no longer fear once machines take the wheel. In fact, the RAND Corporation <a href=\"https:\/\/gas2.org\/2017\/11\/09\/autonomous-cars-can-save-lives-even-technology-not-perfected\/\">insists<\/a> that self-driving systems might save tens of thousands of lives a year once they take to the roads. That\u2019s not a number to be taken lightly, and it\u2019s clear why there\u2019s a lot of buzz around this tech. But recent accidents involving self-driving cars have raised a lot of concerns and questions.<\/p>\n<h2>We\u2019re right to have concerns about self-driving car safety<\/h2>\n<p>Self-driving systems started building momentum with Google\u2019s Waymo, and later with Tesla and Uber. Back in 2009, Google started working on its autonomous car, and within just a few years, its self-driving vehicles drove a collective 300,000 miles. By the end of last year, Google announced its cars managed to mark 4 million miles. And Uber has been testing its systems in the real world, too. It recently spun the odometer up to a total of 2 million miles.<\/p>\n<p>But while the figures might impress you, to get an accurate assessment of the safety of autonomous cars, we need way more miles. For instance, in 2016, Americans drove nearly 3.2 trillion miles, leading to 1.18 fatalities for every 100 million miles driven. Those avoidable deaths really add up, and that\u2019s part of the reason we want a safer alternative. But to judge how safe driverless cars might be, they\u2019d need to drive a significant fraction of that, just for an apples-to-apples comparison.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32225\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32225\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-32225 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/05\/self-driving-car-safety-1024x768-1.jpg\" alt=\" Road intersection showing a front side of an autonomous car\" width=\"800\" height=\"601\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32225\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Self-driving systems started building momentum with Google\u2019s Waymo, and later with Tesla and Uber.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Early tests are pretty positive for automated safety systems, but after a car <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/07\/01\/business\/self-driving-tesla-fatal-crash-investigation.html\">accident<\/a> involving a Tesla Model S electric sedan in which a driver lost his life, the public perception really soured. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration\u2019s (NHTSA) statement <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/07\/01\/business\/self-driving-tesla-fatal-crash-investigation.html\">pointed out<\/a> that preliminary reports showed that the car failed to activate the brakes because it didn\u2019t \u2018see\u2019 another vehicle.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not exactly reassuring. Moreover, officials <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/teslas-autopilot-shares-blame-in-2016-fatal-crash-us-investigators-say-2017-09-12\">note<\/a> that Tesla\u2019s \u201cAutopilot could be used on roads for which it wasn\u2019t designed, and that a hands-on-the-wheel detection system was a poor substitute for measuring driver alertness.\u201d In this case, the driver relied on the technology too much, the safety board <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/teslas-autopilot-shares-blame-in-2016-fatal-crash-us-investigators-say-2017-09-12\">found<\/a>. And they revealed that the truck driver involved in the accident failed to \u201cgive an adequate safety margin before starting the turn\u201d. In the end, it turned out that causes of the accident are manifold, involving the misuse of technology, the Tesla driver\u2019s poor alertness, and inadequate signalling by the truck driver.<\/p>\n<p>Is this a failure of the system or the human operator? It\u2019s not entirely clear, is it?<\/p>\n<h2>The Uber accident offers more reasons for worry &#8211; or does it?<\/h2>\n<p>But the latest Uber accident resulting in a pedestrian death may push the pause button on self-driving systems. It\u2019s clear we need to rethink safety, but a careful analysis of this tragedy doesn\u2019t reveal a clear problem &#8211; yet again.<\/p>\n<p>The accident occurred on Mill Avenue and Curry Road, late on Sunday in Tempe, Arizona, in the evening. This Uber vehicle, though in self-driving mode, had a safety driver at the wheel. The car was travelling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2018\/3\/20\/17142672\/uber-deadly-self-driving-car-crash-fault-police\">38 mph<\/a> in a posted 45 mph zone, when a pedestrian crossing the street was struck and killed. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-03-19\/uber-crash-is-nightmare-the-driverless-world-feared-but-expected\">According<\/a> to <em>Bloomberg Technology<\/em>, \u201cElaine Herzberg, 49, was walking outside of a crosswalk at the time she was struck by the Uber vehicle.\u201d Tempe\u2019s Police Chief, Sylvia Moir, said that, based on the facts that it was dark, and that the pedestrian didn\u2019t cross the lane where marked, the accident would have been difficult to avoid no matter who (or what) was driving.<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_32228\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32228\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-32228 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/05\/The-Uber-accident-1024x578-1.jpg\" alt=\"Car accident showing a vehicle flipped on its side leaning on a damaged car next to it\" width=\"800\" height=\"452\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32228\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Anthony Foxx, who occupied the position of US Secretary of Transportation under former President Barack Obama, described the accident as a &#8220;wake up call to the entire [autonomous vehicle] industry and government to put a high priority on safety&#8221;.<\/figcaption><\/figure>By Arizona state law, pedestrians are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-03-19\/uber-crash-is-nightmare-the-driverless-world-feared-but-expected\">required<\/a> to \u201cyield to right-of-way vehicles when not using crosswalks\u201d. Legally, then, the vehicle may not be at fault \u2013 but that\u2019s not what really matters. It\u2019s safe to say that autonomous vehicles should be able to avoid accidents, even when pedestrians make mistakes. Clearly, this car\u2019s self-driving system wasn\u2019t up to that critical challenge, but it\u2019s worth noting that the safety driver wasn\u2019t able to avoid this deadly collision either. Is this a failure of Uber\u2019s automated safety systems? Probably not, but is that really good enough?<\/p>\n<p>And no one is taking this failure lightly.<\/p>\n<p>Anthony Foxx, who occupied the position of US Secretary of Transportation under former President Barack Obama, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/business-43459156\">described<\/a> the accident as a &#8220;wake up call to the entire [autonomous vehicle] industry and government to put a high priority on safety&#8221;. And he\u2019s not alone in calling out for stricter road regulations. John M. Simpson, a privacy and technology project director with Consumer Watchdog, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2018\/mar\/19\/uber-self-driving-car-kills-woman-arizona-tempe\">noted<\/a> that \u201cThe robot cars cannot accurately predict human behavior, and the real problem comes in the interaction between humans and the robot vehicles.\u201d That\u2019s pretty clearly true.<\/p>\n<h2>Rethinking the basics &#8211; better safe than sorry<\/h2>\n<p><em>MIT Technology Review<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/610574\/what-ubers-fatal-accident-could-mean-for-the-autonomous-car-industry\/\">reported<\/a> that both the NHTSA and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) are \u201csaid to have launched probes\u201d into what happened and what can be done in the future. Subbarao Kambhampati, a professor at Arizona State University who specialises in AI, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/610574\/what-ubers-fatal-accident-could-mean-for-the-autonomous-car-industry\/\">noted<\/a> that the Uber accident questions to what extent safety drivers are able to monitor systems more effectively than the machines they\u2019re augmenting. That\u2019s a good question, especially given inattentiveness and fatigue.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, that\u2019s a problem for all drivers, and one approach is to help us drive better. Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at MIT, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/610574\/what-ubers-fatal-accident-could-mean-for-the-autonomous-car-industry\/\">showed<\/a> that a lot can be achieved \u201cwith a system that estimates a driver\u2019s mental workload and attentiveness by using sensors on the dashboard to measure heart rate, skin conductance, and eye movement\u201d. This setup would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/513531\/proceed-with-caution-toward-the-self-driving-car\/\">provide<\/a> \u201ca kind of adaptive automation\u201d, where the vehicle \u201cwould make more or less use of its autonomous features depending on the driver\u2019s level of distraction or engagement\u201d. That\u2019s a promising approach, but it still doesn\u2019t answer the basic self-driving safety questions.<\/p>\n<p>Tesla\u2019s paying attention to these concerns, and it\u2019s working on its self-driving technology, \u201cThe upcoming autonomous coast-to-coast drive will showcase a major leap forward for our self-driving technology,\u201d they <a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2018\/03\/19\/latest-autopilot-update-gets-cheers-tesla-owners\/\">said<\/a>. \u201cAdditionally, an extensive overhaul of the underlying architecture of our software has now been completed, which has enabled a step-change improvement in the collection and analysis of data and fundamentally enhanced its machine learning capabilities.\u201d In essence, the hope is that the new version of Autopilot will outperform the older, making the system operate more smoothly and with greater safety.<\/p>\n<p>Take a look:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"AutoPilot 2.0 huge improvement: Testing the Tesla\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/RzjNVSiDtQU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re not sure that either of these deaths were really the fault of the tech. In both cases, human drivers were ultimately in control, and in both, they failed to prevent the accident, too. But that\u2019s cold comfort to those affected by this loss of life, and it\u2019s clear that the industry and regulators need to take a step back and rethink basic safety.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019re right to have concerns about self-driving car safety The Uber accident offers more reasons for worry &#8211; or does it? Rethinking the basics &#8211; better safe than sorry Self-driving systems promise a future free from traffic, congestion, and accidents. And it\u2019s clear that they\u2019re one of the most disruptive technologies in play now. We\u2019ve [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45478,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2886],"tags":[4396,4367,4659],"article-type":[],"trends":[5488],"class_list":["post-57949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-transportation","tag-accident","tag-safety","tag-uber-en-2","trends-autonomous-vehicles-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What does the Uber accident mean for the adoption of autonomous vehicles? - Richard van Hooijdonk Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Accidents involving self-driving cars are raising many questions. 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