{"id":57955,"date":"2018-04-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-04-09T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/richardvanhooijdonk.com\/blog\/cybercrime-may-be-the-biggest-global-threat-of-2018\/"},"modified":"2021-07-22T10:36:04","modified_gmt":"2021-07-22T08:36:04","slug":"cybercrime-may-be-the-biggest-global-threat-of-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/en\/cybercrime-may-be-the-biggest-global-threat-of-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Cybercrime may be the biggest global threat of 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul class=\"bold-list\">\n<li>Growing sophistication and professionalism enable cybercrime<\/li>\n<li>State sponsorship is a major issue: North Korea and Russia<\/li>\n<li>What will the future bring?<\/li>\n<li>What needs to be done?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/en\/keynote\/the-future-of-cybercrime-and-terrorism\/\">Cybercrime<\/a> is relentless, undiminished, and unlikely to stop. It is just too easy and too rewarding, and the chances of being caught and punished are perceived as being too low.\u201d That\u2019s a pretty direct <a href=\"https:\/\/csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\/s3fs-public\/publication\/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf?kab1HywrewRzH17N9wuE24soo1IdhuHd\">warning<\/a> from James Lewis, the director and senior fellow of the Technology and Public Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And unfortunately, he\u2019s right.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Cybercrime may be the biggest global threat of 2018\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/51wF6YgfWpk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>2017 was a banner year for the bad guys. As Alcor <a href=\"http:\/\/www.alcortech.com\/war-zone-7-cyber-security-attacks-watch-2018\/\">reports<\/a>, ransomware was a real problem, with NotPetya\/ExPetr, WannaCry, and Bad Rabbit as leading examples of malicious attacks. Josh Fruhlinger, a security expert writing for <em>CSO<\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csoonline.com\/article\/3236183\/ransomware\/what-is-ransomware-how-it-works-and-how-to-remove-it.html\">explains<\/a> that \u201cRansomware is a form of malicious software (or malware) that, once it&#8217;s taken over your computer, threatens you with harm, usually by denying you access to your data. The attacker demands a ransom from the victim, promising \u2014 not always truthfully \u2014 to restore access to the data upon payment.\u201d It\u2019s only one kind of cybercrime, but unfortunately one that\u2019s growing in popularity. We see it as the biggest cyber threat of 2018, and we\u2019re concerned about just how widespread these attacks have become.<\/p>\n<p>The CSIS\/McAfee report makes this worryingly clear. \u201cA good estimate is that two-thirds of the people online\u2014 more than two billion individuals\u2014have had their personal information stolen or compromised,\u201d it <a href=\"https:\/\/csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\/s3fs-public\/publication\/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf?kab1HywrewRzH17N9wuE24soo1IdhuHd\">states<\/a>. \u201cOne survey found that 64% of Americans had been victims of fraudulent charges or loss of personal information. Cybercrime is front-page news because it touches everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Growing sophistication and professionalism enable cybercrime<\/h2>\n<p>The reasons for its popularity among high-tech criminals are easy to understand. As Lewis <a href=\"https:\/\/csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\/s3fs-public\/publication\/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf?kab1HywrewRzH17N9wuE24soo1IdhuHd\">writes<\/a>, \u201cCybercrime also leads in the risk-to-payoff ratio. It is a low risk crime that provides high payoffs. A smart cybercriminal can make hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars with almost no chance of arrest or jail.\u201d That\u2019s because these criminals are growing more sophisticated, acting in concert across global networks and \u2018cybercrime centres\u2019 like North Korea and Russia. And with access to anonymised, secure payment systems like Bitcoin, it\u2019s very hard to catch them in the act. \u201cBitcoin has long been the favored currency for darknet marketplaces, with cybercriminals taking advantage of its pseudonymous nature and decentralized organization to conduct illicit transactions, demand payments from victims, and launder the proceeds from their crimes,\u201d Lewis <a href=\"https:\/\/csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\/s3fs-public\/publication\/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf?kab1HywrewRzH17N9wuE24soo1IdhuHd\">says<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And unfortunately, cybercrime like ransomware pays really well. While corruption and drug trafficking involve larger amounts of money, cybercrime\u2019s haul is nothing to sneer at. <a href=\"https:\/\/csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\/s3fs-public\/publication\/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf?kab1HywrewRzH17N9wuE24soo1IdhuHd\">According<\/a> to the CSIS\/McAfee report, \u201ccybercrime may now cost the world almost $600 billion, or 0.8% of global GDP\u201d.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31968\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31968\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-31968 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/05\/cybercrime-1.jpg\" alt=\"Man wearing a hoodie and gloves sitting in front of two computer screens and a laptop\" width=\"800\" height=\"459\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31968\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cap As Lewis writes, \u201cCybercrime also leads in the risk-to-payoff ratio. It is a low risk crime that provides high payoffs. A smart cybercriminal can make hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars with almost no chance of arrest or jail.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>State sponsorship is a major issue: North Korea and Russia<\/h2>\n<p>That\u2019s huge. Worse still, in some cases, these cybercriminals aren\u2019t just operating with a free-hand; they\u2019re actually state-sponsored. At the very least, this shields them from the fear of investigation and punishment. But sometimes this also means real support, and backed by government resources and access to talent, these attacks can be crippling.<\/p>\n<p>For countries like North Korea, already a pariah state and struggling to keep a sinking economy afloat, getting a piece of the cybercrime action is an opportunity not to be missed. With economic sanctions in place, professional attacks backed by the government can bring in desperately needed cash. Dorothy Denning, a recognised expert in security and analysis, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/north-koreas-growing-criminal-cyberthreat-89423\">observes<\/a> that, in a country that restricts internet access to the elite, \u201cit seems unlikely the country has hackers who operate independent of the government\u201d. The threat they offer is coordinated, organised, and state-sponsored: these hackers \u201cwork primarily for the General Bureau of Reconnaissance or the General Staff Department of the Korean People\u2019s Army\u201d, she <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/north-koreas-growing-criminal-cyberthreat-89423\">writes<\/a>. And though sometimes sloppy, the scale of the thefts they attempt is staggering. In 2016, for instance, \u201cthe regime came close to stealing US$951 million from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/05\/27\/business\/dealbook\/north-korea-linked-to-digital-thefts-from-global-banks.html\">Bangladesh Central Bank<\/a> over the global SWIFT financial network\u201d, she <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/north-koreas-growing-criminal-cyberthreat-89423\">reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"North Korea&#039;s cyber wars\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JR1d6OEIPt4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Nearly a billion dollars is strong motive to sponsor cybercrime, but that\u2019s not the only reason for states to support ransomware and denial of service (DOS) attacks. Geopolitical battles are increasingly fought digitally and with plausible deniability, making cybercrime a front-line weapon. Russia has been suspected of supporting a variety of attacks in Ukraine, each designed to weaken support for its leaders and render its public services ineffective. Consider, for example, the recent ransomware and distributed denial of service (DDOS) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/technology-40886418\">attacks<\/a> on Ukraine\u2019s national postal service, Ukrposhta. These were strikingly similar to the hacking of Kiev\u2019s power grid in 2015, a coordinated assault linked to computers with Russian IP addresses, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/crash-override-malware\/\">suggesting but not proving<\/a> that this was state-sponsored. And what has security experts like Robert Lee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/crash-override-malware\/\">worried<\/a> is that \u201cnothing about it is unique to Ukraine \u2026 They\u2019ve built a platform to be able to do future attacks\u201d. Everyone&#8217;s at risk.<\/p>\n<h2>What will the future bring?<\/h2>\n<p>Ransomware is far from the only kind of cybercrime, but it\u2019s the fastest growing because it\u2019s the most lucrative. And it\u2019s becoming big business as Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) takes off. This frightening trend involves the professionalisation of high-tech crime and its sale as a service. As Lewis <a href=\"https:\/\/csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\/s3fs-public\/publication\/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf?kab1HywrewRzH17N9wuE24soo1IdhuHd\">explains<\/a>, \u201cInstead of a single actor or group writing ransomware and distributing it themselves, the RaaS model allows for authors to set up platforms where \u2018affiliates\u2019 can deploy it to their own list of targets. Typically, the authors take a cut of the resulting ransoms, though some may charge an up-front fee or sell blocks of time to access the command and control servers running the campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31974\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31974\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-31974 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.richardvanhooijdonk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/05\/Ransomware-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"Laptop display showing a ransom message sent by a hacker\" width=\"800\" height=\"451\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31974\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ransomware is far from the only kind of cybercrime, but it\u2019s the fastest growing because it\u2019s the most lucrative<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>And as Swati Khandelwal reports for <em>The Hacker News<\/em>, new RaaS threats are shockingly inexpensive. As she <a href=\"https:\/\/thehackernews.com\/2017\/07\/cybercrime-as-as-service.html\">writes<\/a>, \u201cA new credential stealing malware that targets primarily web browsers is being marketed at Russian-speaking web forums for as cheap as $7, allowing anyone with even little technical knowledge to hack as many computers as they want.<br \/>\nDubbed Ovidiy Stealer, the malware \u2026 initially appeared just last month but is being regularly updated by its Russian-speaking authors and actively adopted by cyber criminals.\u201d That should frighten you &#8211; at that cost, anyone can afford to get into the ransomware racket.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s why we expect to see a sharp increase in ransomware attacks in 2018, and we\u2019re pretty sure they\u2019ll grow in frequency, number, and cost.<\/p>\n<h2>What needs to be done?<\/h2>\n<p>Experts think some pretty basic measures can help. Most ransomware attacks don\u2019t start with high-sophistication. Instead, we\u2019re almost willing victims as we open and download suspicious files, respond to phishing inquiries, or otherwise expose ourselves to unnecessary risks. Even just updating your operating system and browser can help. As Lewis <a href=\"https:\/\/csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\/s3fs-public\/publication\/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf?kab1HywrewRzH17N9wuE24soo1IdhuHd\">notes<\/a>, \u201cProtection against most cybercrimes does not require the most sophisticated defenses.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But international cooperation is vital, too. State sponsors need to be punished, and more effort needs to be made to end \u2018state sanctuaries\u2019 for cybercriminals. That\u2019s not all that likely, so for the near future, it\u2019s best to tighten personal security and make sure that you only open and download files from trusted sources.<\/p>\n<p>We hope we\u2019re wrong about 2018, and we\u2019ll be watching.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Growing sophistication and professionalism enable cybercrime State sponsorship is a major issue: North Korea and Russia What will the future bring? What needs to be done? \u201cCybercrime is relentless, undiminished, and unlikely to stop. It is just too easy and too rewarding, and the chances of being caught and punished are perceived as being too [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45505,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2885],"tags":[4403,4404,4338],"article-type":[],"trends":[5464],"class_list":["post-57955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cybercrime","tag-cyber-crime","tag-hacker","tag-security","trends-iot-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cybercrime may be the biggest global threat of 2018 - Richard van Hooijdonk Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Cybercrime may be the 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