What does a futurist or trend watcher do, and when should you bring one in?

Futurist or trend watcher?

The titles overlap, but differ in how far ahead you look and how you back up what you say.

In practice the titles overlap, and the lines between them are not sharp. Still, each puts the emphasis somewhere else, and the difference lies less in the label than in two questions: how far ahead do you look, and how do you back up what you say?

• Trend watcher.
  Looks mainly at what is changing now: new technology, new business models and new behaviour. Trendwatching often covers the next few years and what those changes mean for organisations, markets and society.
• Futurist.
  Looks further ahead and shows what the world could look like in ten to fifteen years or more. A futurist connects the early developments of today with that future and extends the lines, across technology, the economy, climate and population. In some languages you will also hear the older word futurologist.
• Foresight researcher.
  Usually works at a university, a government or a public research body. The field is known as futures studies or strategic foresight, and the work often follows scientific methods. The University of Turku, for example, has its own research centre for it, the Finland Futures Research Centre.

In my keynotes I mainly want to positively influence people’s mindset: to make them open to big changes, and then to act on them. What stays with them is enthusiasm for change, but also a critical eye, so they can make better decisions.

Exploring, not predicting

A futurist does not predict, but sketches several possible futures.

A good futurist will not claim to know the future. The European Commission puts it this way: foresight “is not about predicting or forecasting the future. It is the discipline of exploring different possible futures”, including the challenges and opportunities they may bring. The aim is to help shape a preferable future. The Commission uses the image of a futures cone with four classes of futures: possible, plausible, probable and preferable. A futurist shows how wide that cone is, and helps you decide which future you want to work towards. The Association of Professional Futurists, a global community of professional futurists, says the same: a futurist “is more likely to say how or why a future could appear rather than to say what the future will be.”

How does a futurist work?

The work has four steps: collecting signals, interpreting trends, building scenarios and stress-testing.

Roughly, the work has four steps. The European Commission describes the same methods for its own policy work.

1. Collecting signals

It all starts with looking. What is happening in start-ups, labs, legislation and customer behaviour that is still small but could become big? The Commission calls this horizon scanning: detecting emerging “game changers” at an early stage and weighing the early signals. How to recognise such small shifts is the subject of Microtrends can decide who wins or loses in business.

2. Interpreting trends

A single signal says little. Only when signals point in one direction do you speak of a trend. Above trends sit megatrends: long-term driving forces that are observable now and will most likely have a global impact. That is how the Joint Research Centre’s Competence Centre on Foresight defines them in its Megatrends Hub. It tracks 14 of them, including accelerating technological change, the changing nature of work and climate change. The megatrends we see for business are in Beyond AI: five mega trends that will reshape business in the next decade.

3. Building scenarios

Because the future is uncertain, you work with several stories side by side. A Dutch example is the WLO 2025 outlook by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Its researchers built four scenarios for the Netherlands in 2040, 2050 and 2060, along two axes: high or lower economic growth, and a fast or delayed climate transition. None of the four is a forecast; together they show what policy needs to withstand.

4. Stress-testing

The last step matters most: what does this mean for your plans? The Commission uses scenarios to “stress-test” policy options: does a plan still work if the world turns out differently than expected? A company can run its strategy, product portfolio or investments past a few scenarios in the same way.

What does a futurist add?

There are three broad reasons to bring someone in: strategy, innovation and inspiration for an audience.

It depends on your question.

• Strategy.
  You want to know which developments will affect your market over the next ten years, and whether your plans can withstand them. A trend analysis and a scenario session with the leadership team fit here.
• Innovation.
  You are looking for new products or services. A trend watcher helps you see opportunities that are still small, and test ideas against where customers are heading.
• Inspiration for an audience.
  At a conference or kick-off you want people to look at things differently. A keynote about the future shows what is coming their way and starts a conversation.

Governments take this seriously. The European Commission has published Strategic Foresight Reports since 2020, and each EU member state designates a “Minister for the Future” who meets the others at least once a year. UNESCO speaks of futures literacy: helping people and institutions use the future to navigate uncertainty and make better decisions in the present. That is a capability an organisation can build, even without a futurist on the payroll.

When do you hire a futurist?

A futurist fits moments such as a new strategy, a fast-changing market or a kick-off.

A few moments stand out:

• you are starting a new strategy or a multi-year plan;
• your market is changing fast, for example because of AI, new regulation or new competitors;
• your team is stuck in the current year and needs a fresh view from outside;
• you are organising a conference, anniversary or kick-off where people need to be challenged.

A futurist does not replace your own research. See them as someone who widens the view and asks the right questions; the follow-up work is yours. When the subject is AI, that work often starts with your own processes: which tasks can AI take on, and which belong with people? For the AI trends a futurist is watching today, read The six biggest AI leadership trends for 2026.

How to choose a trend watcher?

Five questions up front show whether someone fits your goal and your audience.

Do not choose on name or follower count, but on what you want to do differently afterwards. Ask these questions up front:

1. What is the goal?
   Inspiring a large audience calls for something different than a working session with ten board members.
2. How far ahead should it look?
   Two years (trendwatching) or ten to twenty years (futures work and scenarios)?
3. How does the speaker back up the story?
   Ask about sources, examples and how current the material is.
4. Do they know your sector?
   General trends are interesting, but examples from your own market are what people remember.
5. What is left afterwards?
   A presentation, a trend report, a follow-up session?

If you want to build some of this capability yourself, Trendwatching tools: resources for identifying emerging trends is a practical starting point. For a look at how trend watchers looked ahead long before the term existed, read Trendwatcher in the spotlight: sci-fi visionary H.G. Wells. More about Richard van Hooijdonk’s background and approach is on about Richard.

Frequently asked questions

Is a futurologist a futurist?

In practice, yes. Both look further ahead than a trend watcher usually does.

Can a futurist predict the future?

No. According to the European Commission, foresight is precisely not about predicting, but about exploring several possible futures. A futurist helps you prepare for different outcomes.

What is strategic foresight?

Strategic foresight is the structured version of the same work, used by governments and companies: horizon scanning, megatrend analysis and scenarios, applied to real decisions. The European Commission uses it to stress-test its policy against different futures.

How do you spot a good trend watcher?

Look at how they back things up: which sources they use, how current their examples are, and whether they discuss several possible outcomes instead of one confident prediction.

Can you do trendwatching yourself?

Yes. Start by following a fixed set of sources, collecting signals and discussing them with your team every quarter. UNESCO calls this capability futures literacy: learning to use the future to make better decisions.